The Warmies

The Warmies is a popular land-based fishing spot on the western shore of Port Phillip Bay in Melbourne's inner west. It sits on the channel beside Newport Power Station, which discharges warm cooling water into the bay. That warm outflow is what gives the spot its name, and can make it a great place to fish when active.

"The pump" is the warm water discharge from Newport Power Station. When the station generates electricity, it releases warm cooling water into the channel at the Warmies. During winter when the rest of the bay is much colder, this warm water plume attracts baitfish and the predators that follow. The warmer water also increases fish metabolism, making them more active and likely to feed.

Newport is a "peaker" power station, meaning it only generates electricity when demand is high and wholesale power prices make it economical to run. This most commonly happens on cold winter evenings or during hot summer peaks. By analysing AEMO's public demand, price and market forecast data alongside more than three years of Newport's operating history, a machine-learning model identifies the patterns that typically lead to the station starting up. The model is continuously updated with new data to keep its predictions as accurate as possible.

Yes. During daylight hours you can use the live webcam overlooking the Warmies boat ramp. Look past the car park towards the Newport Power Station chimney in the background. When the station is generating, the stack is usually a good visual indicator that it's running, giving you a simple way to verify for yourself.

Around eight hours is typical, but run times vary widely. Sometimes the station only runs for an hour or two, while during prolonged cold snaps it can operate continuously for several days. It almost always starts in the early to mid-afternoon, most commonly around 2:40 pm, and usually between about 1:40 pm and 3:30 pm. While it's difficult to predict the exact shutdown time, the 18-hour forecast shows the probability of the pump still running at each hour ahead, helping you judge whether it's likely to last through the evening or continue until dawn.

The prediction is continuously updated as new information becomes available. AEMO republishes its demand and price forecasts roughly every 30 minutes, and as the day's conditions unfold the model re-scores the likelihood of Newport running. The percentage you see is simply the best estimate at that moment. It's common for a tentative prediction in the morning to become much more certain by the afternoon as the latest forecasts come in.